Average annual pay is the headline number on this site. It is also total payroll divided by headcount, so it rises when low-paid junior staff leave, even if nobody gets a raise. Japan has seen widely reported wage increases since 2024. We checked whether the numbers in the filings are real raises or a change in who is counted.
82% of companies raised average pay, median +5.7% over two years. The correlation with the change in average age is weak (ρ=+0.129), and age, tenure and headcount together explain only 5% of the variation. Whatever else is going on, "the young ones left" does not account for it.
| Quintile | Δ average age (yrs) | Δ average pay | Share that rose | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | -1.1 | +4.0% | 71% | 721 |
| Q2 | -0.2 | +5.6% | 85% | 722 |
| Q3 | +0.3 | +6.0% | 87% | 721 |
| Q4 | +0.8 | +6.3% | 87% | 722 |
| Q5 | +1.8 | +6.5% | 83% | 722 |
The gradient is real but small: a 2.9-year spread in ageing maps to 2.4 percentage points of pay. In the regression, one extra year of average age is worth +1.2% — not enough to produce the +5.7% observed.
Hiring should drag the average down, since new joiners are paid less.
| Quintile | Δ headcount | Δ average pay | Share that rose | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | -9.3% | +5.2% | 79% | 600 |
| Q2 | -1.4% | +6.2% | 86% | 601 |
| Q3 | +2.7% | +5.7% | 87% | 601 |
| Q4 | +7.8% | +6.2% | 83% | 601 |
| Q5 | +23.1% | +5.6% | 79% | 601 |
Essentially flat (ρ=+0.049). Companies that grew headcount by 23% still raised average pay +5.6%. The raises outweighed the dilution from hiring.
Source: annual securities reports (EDINET, Financial Services Agency of Japan).
Method: pipeline/analyze_raise.py. Japanese edition with the full tables:
平均年収が上がった会社では、何が起きていたのか.